Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
On February 12th 2002, the then US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld responded to a question at a news…
When Good News is Bad News…
The following is a quote from a recent article in a prominent financial news journal: “Strong economic data…
Rational Optimism
Two weeks ago, we explained our idea of ‘embracing uncertainty’. To recap, this is the idea that investors…
Is This a New Bull Market, or a Bear Market Rally?
Equity markets hit their lows, for 2022 year-to-date, in mid-June. The S&P 500 Index hit a low of…
Embracing Uncertainty
Pandemic, cultural and working practices changed forever, supply chain disruptions impacting food production, war in Europe. Sound familiar?…
Debunking False Narratives (Part 4): Investing in Anti-Bubbles
Over the past month, we have discussed false narratives we believe are predominant in financial markets today. This…
Debunking False Narratives (Part 3): Inflation is Putin’s Fault
This week, the false narrative we want to challenge is on the topic of inflation. It’s hard to…
Debunking False Narratives (Part 2): Fossil Fuels Are ‘Bad’
Last week, we introduced the first of our ‘false narratives’ in financial markets, de-globalisation. We explained why we…
Debunking False Narratives (Part 1): De-Globalisation
A narrative connects events to form a story. Humans have evolved to connect emotionally with stories, they give…
How Can We Use Economic Data to Gauge Where We Are in This Bear Market Cycle?
News in the mainstream media on the economy and its direction are almost always behind the curve. This…