A total of 35 million COVID vaccines have now been administered globally, with 12 million so far in the US alone. The vaccines are being administered to the most vulnerable groups first, which raises the prospect of a large proportion of those most likely to suffer from serious health outcomes being inoculated in some countries by March. The run-rate is also accelerating, as vaccine production rates improve and health systems around the world race to distribute doses as quickly as possible.
We also know COVID is seasonal, so we should see a natural decline in the prevalence of the virus in the Northern Hemisphere by April. This raises the real prospect of a meaningful ‘return to normal’ for Europe, North America and East Asia by Q2 2020.
However, the speed of ‘return to normal’ will not be shared equally. Many large population middle-income countries (India, South Africa, Brazil, for example) have barely started their vaccination programmes. Israel (population: 9 million) has vaccinated more people in total than the continents of Africa (population: 1.2 billion) and South America (population: 422 million) combined.
This uneven situation is likely to become even more stark in coming months, as some countries ‘re-open’ confident their populations are protected, while many other nations will still be struggling to start their vaccination programmes. Lockdowns exacerbated internal income inequalities in many countries and it is likely vaccines will exacerbate global inequalities.
This problem will improve. COVID vaccines will eventually be in such plentiful supply we will have too many of them, but until industrial capacity expansion gets us there, we will remain in a position where global vaccine demand far exceeds supply. An important milestone will be when developed world nations turn their attention away from vaccinating themselves and start helping other nations with their vaccination efforts. This milestone cannot come too soon.
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