Investors in the past two weeks could have benefitted from dusting off their old school literature exercise books and revisiting a poem by Nobel Prize winner Rudyard Kipling: “If”. Written in 1910, four years before the First World War broke out, the poem deals with themes from patience and staying calm under pressure to rebuilding after loss. Its lessons feel remarkably, and perhaps uncomfortably, timely.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has left consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping. Markets hang on every word spoken by the Trump Administration, any glimpse of resolution pushing prices up, and any suggestion the conflict will be drawn out pushing them back down. Oil prices have seen dramatic swings, with Brent crude plunging 17% in a single session before rebounding sharply after a since-deleted social media post suggested a US Navy escort through the Strait of Hormuz.
The central issue is the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. An average of 20 million barrels per day were shipped through it in 2025, representing around 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, with bypass options extremely limited. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage, leading to an effective halt in shipping. Tanker traffic fell first by approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait, before dropping to close to zero.
For all the talk of green energy and net zero, the stark reality is that the global economy needs oil to function. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva captured it well: “The world economy has been remarkably resilient. Shock after shock, and yet growth is at 3.3%. But this resilience is being tested yet again.” A sustained 10% increase in energy prices over one year would add 0.4 percentage points to inflation and slow economic growth by 0.1% to 0.2%.
The price swings have been extraordinary. Brent crude surged 10 to 13% to around $80 to $82 per barrel by 2nd March, then traded at $103.47 by 9th March, having touched $119.50 earlier that day. The knock-on effects extend well beyond energy markets. The S&P 500 is down 3% this month, enough to put it into the red for the year. Treasury yields have climbed, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.26% from 3.97% before the war began, and traders have pushed back forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
History offers a degree of reassurance. Strategists at Carson Group compiled a list of 40 major geopolitical events across 85 years and calculated the S&P 500’s return in the months following. On average, it lost 0.9% in the first month but rose 3.4% across the following six months. The US stock market has a history of bouncing back relatively quickly from military conflicts, as long as oil prices do not stay too high for too long. Even with the dramatic swings of recent weeks, the S&P 500 remains just 4.4% below its all-time high set in January.
The tail risks, however, must be acknowledged. Wells Fargo’s model finds that sustained oil prices at $130 per barrel, a 100% increase from pre-conflict levels, would result in back-to-back contractions in personal consumption expenditures. Their chief economist warned that such prices “would materially raise the risk of recession.” What makes the jump particularly concerning is that it is occurring during an already uncertain time. Last month’s hiring by US employers was surprisingly weak, raising worries about stagflation, where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains high, a combination the Federal Reserve has no good tools to fix.
This is where Kipling’s words prove their enduring worth: “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, if you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, if you can wait and not be tired of waiting.” The conflict will end. All conflicts do, and opportunities emerge on the other side. In a baseline scenario of a US-Iran deal within four weeks, Brent could end 2026 around $70 per barrel, according to Allianz Research.
Be patient and stay invested. And remember the words Kipling inscribed above the entrance to Wimbledon’s Centre Court, words that have steadied champions in their most pressured moments:
If you can meet Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same…
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