For the 2020 as a whole, analysts expect US GDP to contract by 6.5%, and Europe’s by 7.5%. For the global economy, the IMF expects to see a 3% decline in GDP in 2020. Given these bleak predictions, we can only hope that analysts and the media will turn their attention to forecasts for 2021, which are considerably more positive. Next year, the IMF sees a +5.8% rebound in global growth, with the US and Europe both seeing a +4.7% increase, and China seeing a +9.2% increase. These projections are dependent on a sharp rebound in economic fortunes in the second half of 2020, which, while not a certainty, is the consensus expectation today. These numbers are massive, and if they come to pass, they would easily outweigh this year’s expected decline.

In Q2 2020, forecasts are for a decline in US GDP of 33%. Then in Q3 2020 the expectation is for flat growth, before a massive +27% jump in growth in Q4 2020. The Centre for Economic and Policy Research has suggested that many of the US’s unemployed will either breakeven or come out ahead thanks to the country’s generous benefits package. They expect the US to come out of lockdown sometime in May, causing house and car sales to pick-up sharply as consumers make up for lost time. This could send factory demand booming, as huge inventories are rapidly depleted. If the US can’t meet this built-up demand, then we could see massive imports into the country.

In other words, if predictions are to be trusted, we could be in for a spectacular couple of years after COVID-19.

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