The past six weeks have been among the most turbulent in recent memory. A US-Israeli military campaign against Iran pushed the region to the brink of wider war before a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan halted hostilities. The relief was short-lived. Israeli strikes in Lebanon strained the truce almost immediately, and when JD Vance announced that US-Iran talks had collapsed, Trump declared a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the largest disruption to world energy supply since the 1970s oil crisis.
The consequences have been severe. Oil prices rebounded above $99 per barrel within 24 hours of the ceasefire as doubts about its durability emerged. If Brent averages $100 per barrel through 2026, global growth could slow to 1.7%, down from a pre-war forecast of 2.5%. One analyst described the truce as “a forced and temporary ceasefire between two sides that have exhausted their escalation options without achieving decisive outcomes.” The fundamental drivers of conflict, including Iran’s nuclear status, Gulf security architecture, and the Israel-Hezbollah-Iran triangle, remain entirely unresolved.
Markets will continue to react to every headline. Energy and commodity prices are likely to remain elevated as governments hoard and restock in anticipation of renewed conflict. That volatility is the price investors must accept. And yet the world continues to move forward. Companies generate profit, science and medicine advance, and billions across the developing world continue their march out of poverty. The investor who panics and sells into headlines is the one who will look back on this period with regret.
One structural truth demands particular attention: artificial intelligence is not a future event. It is reshaping the labour market now, in ways that will define the next generation’s careers.
Goldman Sachs estimates AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs globally. After ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, job postings for structured, repetitive roles fell 13%, while demand for analytical, technical, and creative work grew 20%. Entry-level positions face the highest exposure. HR leaders are already signalling a shift toward skill-based, AI-enabled hiring over traditional degree-based hiring. Demand for AI fluency has grown sevenfold in two years, faster than any other skill in the US economy.
The honest answer: it depends entirely on what and where you study. The typical graduate earns a median 12.5% return on their higher education investment, and for most students college remains worthwhile. But the variation is enormous. Engineering delivers an average lifetime ROI of 1,082%, with the degree paying for itself within six years at a starting salary of around $85,000. Computer science, nursing, and economics also rank highly. At the other end, a Bachelor’s in Education delivers a lifetime ROI of negative 55%. Liberal arts and humanities come in at negative 42%. The institution matters as much as the subject, since the same degree can deliver a 25x return at one university and a 3x return at another.
The broader case for a degree remains intact. Graduates earn approximately 67% more per week than non-graduates, experience lower unemployment rates, and see that earnings premium grow from 27% at age 25 to 60% by age 55.
But the degree alone is no longer sufficient. Employers are demanding practical experience, genuine problem-solving capability, and digital literacy alongside academic credentials. A strong degree from a strong university, combined with real-world experience, remains a formidable combination. A weak degree from an expensive institution, in a field being automated, is a very expensive mistake.
For parents who want to give their children genuine choice, the financial burden of a top university need not be crippling, provided you start early and stay disciplined.
A four-year Ivy League education today costs between $340,000 and $380,000 all-in. But investing $1,000 per month from birth over 18 years at 7% annual growth produces approximately $430,000, enough to cover it comfortably. Those who cannot start at that level can begin with $500 per month and increase gradually. The mathematics works either way, provided three principles are respected: plan, start, and stay invested.
The goal is not to reduce education to a financial calculation. Alumni networks, friendships, broadened perspective, and the confidence built through sustained achievement have real and lasting value. But the financial dimension cannot be ignored.
The best gift any parent can give a child is not just the aspiration of a great education, but the financial plan to make it possible. Start now. Stay the course.
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